by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2015 02:02:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the tenth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in September were up 11.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 11.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 3.0% through July (prices increased more in 7 months in 2015, than all of 2014).

September Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Sept-08	6,179	---	1,041	16.8%	54,4271	---
Sept-09	7,907	28.0%	2,776	35.1%	38,340	-29.6%
Sept-10	6,762	-14.5%	2,904	42.9%	45,202	17.9%
Sept-11	7,892	16.7%	3,470	44.0%	26,950	-40.4%
Sept-12	6,478	-17.9%	2,849	44.0%	21,703	-19.5%
Sept-13	6,313	-2.5%	2,106	33.4%	23,405	7.8%
Sept-14	6,252	-1.0%	1,609	25.7%	26,492	13.2%
Sept-15	6,980	11.6%	1,573	22.5%	23,396	-11.7%
1 September 2008 probably includes pending listings