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Friday, October 23, 2015

Off topic: Hurricane Patricia

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2015 04:51:00 PM

Hurricane Patricia is about to make landfall in Mexico as a category 5 storm. According to the National Hurricane Center:

There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.
Below is a satellite image of Patricia. The storm east of Hawaii is Olaf (that is expected to dissipate). For a larger image, click here.

Hurricane Patricia