Thursday, September 03, 2015

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

by Bill McBride on 9/03/2015 08:03:00 PM

From Justin Lahart at the WSJ: Jobs Report Could Seal the Deal on Rates

J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli thinks the Fed will stand pat, leaving its target range on overnight rates at zero-to-0.25%. But an increase of 250,000 jobs coupled with a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% or 5% would represent a “pretty strong case” for a rate increase, he says. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris thinks the Fed will raise its rate range by a quarter point, but that a job gain of less than 150,000 would call that into question.
As I noted in the earlier employment preview, most of the data was a little weaker in August than in July, and August tends to be revised up significantly - so I'm taking the "under" on the consensus forecast.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, up from the 215,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.2%.