Sunday, August 23, 2015

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 8/23/2015 11:32:00 PM

I take a one week vacation, and the market turns ugly.  Oh well ...

From the WSJ: Refinery Woes Stall Gasoline Price Drops

U.S. oil prices briefly dropped below $40 a barrel on Friday—hitting a six-year low that adds to pressure on pump prices for Labor Day road trips. But cheap gasoline isn’t a sure bet everywhere.

Even as most drivers around the country are spending 25% less on fuel than they did a year ago, California drivers have missed out on the gasoline price windfall because of refinery outages. ... Production woes are spreading to other parts of the country, including the Midwest. ...

“Gas prices are not as low as they should be because of unexpected problems at major refineries and strong demand from drivers,” said Michael Green, a AAA spokesman. The group says the nationwide average could fall to $2 a gallon this year, but only if there are no more production hiccups.
Schedule for Week of August 23, 2015

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 46 and DOW futures are down 400 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $39.43 per barrel and Brent at $44.52 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $100 - so prices are down over 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.60 per gallon (down about $0.84 per gallon from a year ago).  Gasoline prices should follow oil prices down - once the refinery issues are resolved.