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Sunday, July 05, 2015

Sunday Night Futures: Greece says No!

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2015 07:58:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Tsipras Triumphs as Greece Votes Against Austerity

Sixty-one percent of voters backed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s rejection of further spending cuts and tax increases in an unprecedented referendum that’s also taken the country to the brink of financial collapse.
Years ago we discussed how endless austerity and depression would eventually be rejected in a democracy. No one knows what will happen next. The best policy would be to ease up on austerity - let Greece start growing again - and write down some of the debt. Unfortunately the best policy seems unlikely since many of the creditors will not admit their policies have failed.

If the creditors want more austerity, they should make some guarantees. If Greece does X, Y and Z, then the creditors will guarantee the debt-to-GDP ratio will decline to some number in 3 years.  If the economy grows, great. If not the creditors would take a large write-down.

• At 10:00 AM ET, the Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.0 from 55.7 in May.

Schedule for Week of July 5, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 26 and DOW futures are down 206 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $54.81 per barrel and Brent at $59.70 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $106, and Brent was at $111 - so prices are down almost 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.76 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).