Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Wednesday: GDP

by Bill McBride on 6/23/2015 08:54:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We look for GDP growth to be revised higher to 0.4% qoq saar in 1Q, a notable improvement from the second release of -0.7%. This reflects stronger consumer spending given the upward revision to March core control retail sales and the QSS survey. We also look for somewhat stronger nonresidential structures investment, although it will continue to be a drag as a result of a drop in mining investment. Residential investment also looks likely to be revised higher as does government spending. Looking ahead, we expect growth to rebound to 3.4% in 2Q. ...

This will not be the final revision to 1Q GDP — it will likely be revised yet again with the annual GDP revision in July. A recent hot topic has been that 1Q real GDP has residual seasonality issues. The BEA plans to resolve some of these seasonality issues in the annual revision, thus we could see a sizeable upward revision to 1Q after this upcoming third release.
CR Note: The annual revision will be released on July 30th, along with the "advance" estimate for Q2 GDP.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2015 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.2% annualized in Q1, revised up from the 0.7% decrease second estimate.

• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).