Monday, June 22, 2015

Existing Home Sales in May: 5.35 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 6/22/2015 10:10:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Bounce Back Strongly in May as First-time Buyers Return

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in May from an upwardly revised 5.09 million in April. Sales have now increased year-over-year for eight consecutive months and are 9.2 percent above a year ago (4.90 million)....

Total housing inventory at the end of May increased 3.2 percent to 2.29 million existing homes available for sale, and is 1.8 percent higher than a year ago (2.25 million). Unsold inventory is at a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.2 months in April.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in May (5.35 million SAAR) were 5.1% higher than last month, and were 9.2% above the May 2014 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.29 million in May from 2.22 million in April.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory increased 1.8% year-over-year in May compared to May 2014.  

Months of supply was at 5.1 months in May.

This was above expectations of sales of 5.25 million.  For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low, but increasing.    I'll have more later ...