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Friday, June 26, 2015

Are Multi-Family Housing Starts near a peak?

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2015 12:37:00 PM

I'm wondering if multi-family housing starts are near a peak. The architecture billings index for multi-family residential market was negative for the fourth consecutive month, and that suggests a slowdown for new apartment construction later this year.

That doesn't mean apartment construction will slow sharply, especially since demographics are still favorable for apartments (as discussed below).   But multi-family construction might move sideways.

However the NMHC Market Tightness Index was still favorable for apartments in Q1, but not as favorable as a few years ago.

Note: Parts of this post are from previous posts.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single (blue) and multi-family (red) housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, but it does appear that growth is slowing.  Of course multi-family permits were very high last month, so we might see another pickup in starts.

This has been quite a boom for apartments.  It was five years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive.

The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics, and people moving from owning to renting).

Demographics are still favorable, but my sense is the move "from owning to renting" has slowed. And more supply has been coming online.

On demographics, a large cohort has been moving into the 20 to 34 year old age group (a key age group for renters). Also, in 2015, based on Census Bureau projections, the two largest 5 year cohorts are 20 to 24 years old, and 25 to 29 years old (the largest cohorts are no longer be the "boomers").  Note: Household formation would be a better measure than population, but reliable data for households is released with a long lag.

Population 20 to 34 years old Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the population in the 20 to 34 year age group has been increasing.  This is actual data from the Census Bureau for 1985 through 2010, and current projections from the Census Bureau from 2015 through 2035.

The circled area shows the recent and projected increase for this group.

From 2020 to 2030, the population for this key rental age group is expected to remain mostly unchanged.

This favorable demographic is a key reason I've been positive on the apartment sector for the last five years - and I expect new apartment construction to stay relatively strong for a few more years.

And on supply, here is the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily over the last few years, and completions (red line) have lagged behind - but completions have been catching up (more deliveries), and will continue to follow starts up (completions lag starts by about 12 months).

Note that the blue line (multi-family starts) might be starting to move more sideways.

Whereas multi-family starts were only up slightly in May (NSA), mutli-family completions were up 60%!

Completions will continue to rise - with more supply coming on the market - even if starts do move sideways.

And looking forward on demographics ...

Population 20 to 34 years oldThe fourth graph shows the longer term trend for several key age groups: 20 to 29, 25 to 34, and 30 to 39 (the groups overlap).

This graph is from 1990 to 2060 (all data from BLS: current to 2060 is projected).

We can see the surge in the 20 to 29 age group (red).  Once this group exceeded the peak in earlier periods, there was an increase in apartment construction.  This age group will peak in 2018 (until the 2030s), and the 25 to 34 age group (orange, dashed) will peak in 2023.  This suggests demand for apartments will soften starting around 2020 +/-.

For buying, the 30 to 39 age group (blue) is important (note: see Demographics and Behavior for some reasons for changing behavior).  The population in this age group is increasing, and will increase significantly over the next 10+ years.  

This demographics is positive for home buying, and this is a key reason I expect single family housing starts to continue to increase in coming years.