Friday, January 16, 2015

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in December

by Bill McBride on 1/16/2015 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in December after rising 1.3 percent in November. The decrease in December reflected a sharp drop in the output of utilities, as warmer-than-usual temperatures reduced demand for heating; excluding utilities, industrial production rose 0.7 percent. Manufacturing posted a gain of 0.3 percent for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The index for mining increased 2.2 percent after falling in the previous two months. At 106.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 4.9 percent above its level of a year earlier. For the fourth quarter of 2014 as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, with widespread gains among the major market and industry groups. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 percentage point in December to 79.7 percent, a rate that is 0.4 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2013) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.7 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.7% is 0.4% below the average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased 0.1% in December to 106.5. This is 27.2% above the recession low, and 5.7% above the pre-recession peak.

This was slightly below expectations.