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Saturday, November 01, 2014

Schedule for Week of November 2nd

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2014 01:01:00 PM

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the October ISM manufacturing index and October vehicle sales, both on Monday, the September Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and September ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----

Early: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor report for September.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.6 million SAAR in October from 16.3 million in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 56.0 from 56.6 in September

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September at 56.6%. The employment index was at 54.6%, and the new orders index was at 60.0%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through August. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $40.7 billion in September from $40.1 billion in August.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is for a 0.7 decrease in September orders.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 212,000 payroll jobs added in October, down from 213,000 in September.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 58.0, down from 58.6 in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.

----- Thursday, November 6th -----

Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for October. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 283 thousand from 287 thousand.

----- Friday, November 7th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October, down from the 248,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.9% in October.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 2.635 million jobs, and it appears the pace of hiring is increasing.  Right now it looks like 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment growth.

As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should eventually start to pickup.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for credit to increase $16.0 billion.