Tuesday, November 04, 2014

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.6% Year-over-year in September

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2014 11:31:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 5.6 Percent Year Over Year in September 2014

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.6 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013. This change represents 31 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, dropped by 0.1 percent in September 2014 compared to August 2014.
...
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.2 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013 and 0.1 percent month over month compared to August 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, 49 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in August, with Mississippi being the only state to experience a year-over-year decline (-0.9 percent). Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions. ...

“Home prices continue to rise compared with this time last year but the rate of growth is clearly slowing as we exit 2014,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down 0.1% in September, and is up 5.6% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and - as I predicted last month - the index turned slightly negative month-to-month in September (this is the beginning of the seasonally weak period for house prices).


CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for thirty one consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

The YoY increases continue to slow.

This index was up 11.8% YoY in February 2014, and the YoY increase has been slowing since then. In July, the YoY increase was 6.4%, in August 5.8% and now, in September, the increase was 5.6%.