Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in August

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2014 06:01:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. Note: Hopefully Zillow will start estimating the National Index.

From Zillow: Find Out Next Month’s Case-Shiller Numbers Today

The July S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data out this morning indicated continued slowing in the housing market with the annual change in the 20-city index falling to 6.7 percent from 8.1 percent the prior month. Our current forecast for SPCS next month indicates further slowing with the annual increase in the 20-City Composite Home Price Index falling to 5.7 percent in August.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) monthly increase in July for the 20-City index was 0.6 percent, and we expect it to fall to 0.3 percent next month.

All forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on the July SPCS data release this morning and the August 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released September 18. Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for August will not be released until Tuesday, October 28.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in August than in July (6.7% year-over-year for the Composite 20 in July, 5.6% year-over-year for the National Index).

Zillow August 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
  Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
August
2013
178.71174.56164.49160.57
Case-Shiller
(last month)
July
2014
188.29184.50173.34169.67
Zillow ForecastYoY5.8%5.8%5.7%5.7%
MoM0.4%0.1%0.3%0.1%
Zillow Forecasts1  189.1184.7173.9169.8
Current Post Bubble Low  146.45149.90134.07137.12
Date of Post Bubble Low  Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low  29.1%23.2%29.7%23.8%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts