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Sunday, October 12, 2014

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2014 07:36:00 PM

Note: Monday is a federal/bank holiday. The Bond market will be closed in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. The stock market will be open for trading.

From Professor Hamilton: Lower oil prices

For the last 3 years, European Brent has mostly traded in a range of $100-$120 with West Texas intermediate selling at a $5 to $20 discount. But in September Brent started moving below $100 and now stands at $90 a barrel, and the spread over U.S. domestic crude has narrowed. Here I take a look at some of the factors behind these developments.
...[see Hamilton's post]

As I’ve noted before there’s a basic limit on how much U.S. production is capable of lowering the world price. The methods that are responsible for the U.S. production boom are quite expensive. Just how low the price can go before some of the frackers start to drop out is subject to some debate.
More production in Libya and in the U.S., combined with a weak global economy and the stronger dollar ... and the price of oil has declined significantly.

Schedule for Week of October 12th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are down 17 and DOW futures are down over 100 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $84.33 per barrel and Brent at $88.60 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $102, and Brent was at $111 - so prices are down close to 20%  year-over-year.

Below is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.22 per gallon (down about 10 cents from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by