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Saturday, October 25, 2014

Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2014 08:11:00 AM

Excerpts from a research piece by economist Kris Dawsey at Goldman Sachs:

US data have generally been solid since the last FOMC meeting, with a few exceptions. However, concern about downside risks to global growth increased—echoed by Fed communications—while financial market volatility rose considerably. The market-implied date of the first rate hike shifted out by roughly a quarter to 2015 Q4.

Our analysis suggests that recent developments should have a limited effect on the Fed’s baseline expectation for growth in the near-term, although downside risks to inflation are more pronounced. The FOMC will probably acknowledge recent foreign developments in the October statement, but an explicit shift in the balance of risks for the US outlook to the downside would be a dovish surprise. Other changes to the statement will likely include a slight upgrade to the language on the labor market.

St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s suggestion that QE could be extended past the October meeting garnered a lot of attention, but this seems unlikely to us. ...

We think the “considerable time” forward guidance will only be adjusted slightly at the October meeting, removing the reference to the end of asset purchases. The September meeting minutes suggested that any major changes are most likely at a meeting with a press conference, such as December. ...
emphasis added