by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2014 08:19:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July. The consensus is for a 7.5% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for July. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 7.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 61.5, down from 64.3 in August.

Note:S&P is now releasing the National house price index monthly, and I expect reporting to shift from the Composite 20 to the National index. The National index was up 6.2% year-over-year in June. Below is a graph with the National and both composite indexes.



Earlier today I posted a table of the year-over-year changes for the Black Knight index (showing year-over-year prices have been slowing for 10 months). Here is a table for Case-Shiller showing year-over-year price changes peaked at the end of 2013, and have been slowing for months:

Year-over-year Price Changes
Month	Composite 10	Composite 20	National Index
Jan-13	7.3%	8.2%	7.7%
Feb-13	8.6%	9.4%	8.4%
Mar-13	10.0%	10.7%	8.9%
Apr-13	11.3%	11.9%	9.0%
May-13	11.6%	12.0%	9.0%
Jun-13	11.7%	11.9%	9.2%
Jul-13	12.1%	12.3%	9.7%
Aug-13	12.7%	12.8%	10.2%
Sep-13	13.2%	13.2%	10.7%
Oct-13	13.6%	13.6%	10.9%
Nov-13	13.9%	13.7%	10.8%
Dec-13	13.6%	13.4%	10.8%
Jan-14	13.5%	13.2%	10.5%
Feb-14	13.2%	12.9%	10.2%
Mar-14	12.6%	12.4%	8.9%
Apr-14	10.8%	10.8%	7.9%
May-14	9.3%	9.3%	7.0%
Jun-14	8.1%	8.1%	6.2%