Thursday, September 18, 2014

Lawler on 2013 ACS: Headship Rates, Homeownership Rates Fell Last Year

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2014 06:18:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

The Census Bureau released the one-year estimates for the 2013 American Community Survey this morning. For various housing and demographic information, the results are estimates of year averages.

The ACS estimate of the number of households in 2013 was 116,291,033, up just 321,493 from 2012.

If accurate of trends, the report suggests that:
1. household growth last year was very slow
2. homeownership rates continued to decline, with significant declines in the 35-64 year age groups.

To remind folks, here is a comparison of the ACS and the HVS with the Decennial Census for 2010.

Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder, 2010
Age Decennial
Census (4/1)
ACS
(avg.)
HVS
(avg.)
15-2416.1%14.7%22.8%
25-3442.0%41.3%44.4%
35-4462.3%61.9%65.0%
45-5471.5%71.7%73.5%
55-6477.3%77.9%79.0%
65-7480.2%81.1%82.0%
75+74.5%75.7%78.9%
All ages65.1%65.4%66.9%

And the ACS and HVS for the last four years:

Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder
  American Community SurveyHousing Vacancy Survey
Age20102011201220132010201120122013
15-2414.7%13.5%12.5%12.6%22.8%22.6%21.7%22.2%
25-3441.3%39.7%37.9%37.4%44.4%42.6%41.5%41.6%
35-4461.9%60.0%58.6%57.8%65.0%63.5%61.4%60.6%
45-5471.7%70.7%69.9%69.3%73.5%72.7%71.7%71.2%
55-6477.9%77.1%76.5%75.7%79.0%78.5%77.4%76.6%
65-7481.1%80.9%80.7%80.3%82.0%82.4%82.2%81.5%
75+75.7%75.8%76.3%76.1%78.9%79.3%80.0%80.0%
All ages65.4%64.6%63.9%63.5%66.9%66.1%65.4%65.1%

Here are implied “headship” rates by age group from the ACS for 2012 and 2013, with headship rate defined at householders divided by resident population.

Headship Rate by Age Group, ACS
Age20122013
15-2410.5%10.4%
25-3442.2%41.6%
35-4451.3%51.1%
45-5454.5%54.2%
55-6457.1%56.8%
65-7460.4%60.0%
75+62.8%62.1%
All ages45.9%45.6%