Monday, September 22, 2014

Existing Home Sales in August: 5.05 million SAAR, Inventory up 4.5% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2014 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Slightly Lose Momentum in August as Investor Activity Declines

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in August from a slight downwardly-revised 5.14 million in July. Sales are at the second-highest pace of 2014, but remain 5.3 percent below the 5.33 million-unit level from last August, which was also the second-highest sales level of 2013. ...

Total housing inventory at the end of August declined 1.7 percent to 2.31 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.5-month supply at the current sales pace. However, unsold inventory is 4.5 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.21 million existing homes available for sale.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in August (5.05 million SAAR) were 1.8% lower than last month, and were 5.3% below the August 2013 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 2.31 million in August from 2.35 million in July.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory increased 4.5% year-over-year in August compared to August 2013.  

Months of supply was at 5.5 months in August.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.18 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and inventory is still low, but up year-over-year.    I'll have more later ...