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Thursday, September 18, 2014

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 22.5 in September

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2014 12:31:00 PM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: September Manufacturing Survey

The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of 28.0, its highest reading since March 2011, to 22.5 this month. The current new orders [to 15.5] and shipments indexes edged higher this month, however, increasing 1 point and 5 points, respectively.
The employment index increased 12 points to its highest reading since May 2011. [to 21.2] ...

Most of the survey’s indicators of future growth declined from their 22-year high readings reached last month.
emphasis added
This at the consensus forecast of a reading of 22.0 for September.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through September. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through August.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys was solid in September (highest since 2004), and this suggests another strong ISM report for September.