Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2014 08:31:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released this morning. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Slowdown Forecasted to Continue

The Case-Shiller data for June 2014 came out this morning, and based on this information and the July 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released August 21), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (July 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 7.0 percent and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from June to July will be 0.1 percent for the 20-City Composite Index and flat for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for July will not be released until Tuesday, September 30.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in July than in June (8.1% year-over-year).

Zillow July 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
  Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
July
2013
176.39172.88162.38158.96
Case-Shiller
(last month)
June
2014
187.19185.57172.33170.69
Zillow ForecastYoY6.9%6.9%7.0%7.0%
MoM0.7%0.0%0.8%0.1%
Zillow Forecasts1  188.5185.2173.7170.5
Current Post Bubble Low  146.45149.91134.07137.13
Date of Post Bubble Low  Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low  28.7%23.5%29.6%24.3%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts