Sunday, August 24, 2014

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in August

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2014 03:52:00 PM

The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Wednesday, Sept 3rd. Sales in July were at 16.40 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be above 16 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 27 selling days in August this year compared to 28 last year.

Here are a couple of forecasts:

From J.D. Power: Summer Sizzle Continues as New-Vehicle Sales in August Forecast to Hit Highest Levels of the Year

Retail light-vehicle sales are projected to hit 1.3 million units and total light-vehicle sales are expected to reach nearly 1.5 million in August 2014, both a 3 percent increase on a selling day adjusted basis, compared with August 2013.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales in August 2014 is expected to be 13.6 million units, an increase of more than 100,000 units from the selling rate in July 2014. The August SAAR marks the sixth consecutive month where the SAAR has exceeded 13 million. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.  [Total sales forecast at 16.5 million SAAR]

John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power, notes that continued high levels of consumer expenditures on new vehicles demonstrate the continuation of the overall health of the industry.

“We expect consumer spending on new vehicles in August to approach $39 billion, the highest level on record for the month of August and second-highest month ever behind July 2005 ($39.7 billion),” said Humphrey. “The record consumer spending is fueled by both high sales volumes and high transaction prices.”
From WardsAuto: Forecast: Strong Summer Sales to Continue in August
A new WardsAuto forecast calls for August U.S. light-vehicle sales to continue to gain ground on year-ago, as the industry seasonally adjusted annual rate stays in line with recent trend. The report calls for just under 1.51 million LV deliveries this month, equating to a daily sales rate of 55,761 units (over 27 days) – a 4.3% improvement over same-month year-ago (28 days). [Total sales forecast of 16.6 million SAAR]
Another solid month for auto sales.