Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Treasury: Budget Deficit declined in July 2014 compared to July 2013

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2014 02:18:00 PM

The Treasury released the July Monthly Treasury Statement today. The Treasury reported a $94 billion deficit in July 2014, down from $97 billion in July 2013. For fiscal year 2014 through July, the deficit was $460 billion compared to $607 billion for the same period in fiscal 2013 (the fiscal year end in September).

In April, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their new Updated Budget Projections: 2014 to 2024. The projected budget deficits were reduced for each of the next ten years, and the projected deficit for 2014 was revised down from 3.0% to 2.8%.  Based on the Treasury release today, I expect the deficit for fiscal 2014 to be close to the current CBO projection. The CBO will publish new budget projections this month.

US Federal Government Budget Surplus DeficitClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the actual (purple) budget deficit each year as a percent of GDP, and an estimate for the next ten years based on estimates from the CBO.

The deficit should decline further next year and is projected to stay below 3% for the next 5 years.

The decline in the deficit, as a percent of GDP, from almost 10% to under 3% in 2014 is the fastest decline in the deficit since the demobilization following WWII (not shown on graph).

As an aside, the states are doing better too. In California: Controller Releases July Cash Update

State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California's cash balance, receipts and disbursements in July 2014. Total revenues for the first month of Fiscal Year 2014-15 totaled $5.4 billion, beating estimates in the Budget Act by $231.9 million, or 4.5 percent.

"Even though July is usually a weak revenue collection month, the new fiscal year is off to a strong start," Chiang said. "While the State plans to borrow operating funds through revenue anticipation notes, the $2.8 billion needed solely for smoothing out the timing of revenues is at the lowest level since the 2006-07 fiscal year. If we can continue to reduce short- and long-term debts, we can continue to improve our fiscal condition."
emphasis added