Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2014 07:21:00 PM

From Tim Duy at Economist's View: Fed Watch: Fed Hawks Squawk

How much leeway does Fed Chair Janet Yellen have in her campaign to hold interest rates low for a considerable period after asset purchases end later this year? If you listen to Fed hawks, you would believe that she is quickly running out of room. ...

... At the moment, we are focused on wages as the missing part of the higher rate equation. But that is too narrow of an analysis. Also on Yellen's side is low actual inflation and anchored inflation expectations. To be sure, the Fed will be under increasing pressure to begin normalizing policy if unemployment drops below 6%. At that point the Fed will be sufficiently close to their objectives that they will believe the odds of falling behind the curve will rise in the absence of movement toward policy normalization. But without a more pressing threat to inflation expectations from a combination of actual inflation in excess of the Fed's target and wage growth to support that inflation, Yellen has room to normalize policy at a gradual pace. For now, the data is still on her side and the hawks will remain frustrated, much as they have for the past several years.
CR Note: Duy says the "hawks will remain frustrated", but it is also important to note that they have also been wrong!

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 305 thousand from 302 thousand.

• Early, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for July. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for June from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $18.3 billion.