Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 8.1% year-over-year in June

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2014 09:17:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Wide Spread Slowdown in Home Price Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through June 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... show a sustained slowdown in price increases. The National Index gained 6.2% in the 12 months ending June 2014 while the 10-City and 20-City Composites gained 8.1%; all three indices saw their rates slow considerably from last month. Every city saw its year-over-year return worsen.

The National Index, now being published monthly, gained 0.9% in June. The 10- and 20-City Composites increased 1.0%. New York led the cities with a return of 1.6% and recorded its largest increase since June 2013. Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas followed at +1.4%. Las Vegas posted its largest monthly gain since last summer. ...

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month."
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 18.2% from the peak, and down 0.1% in June (SA). The Composite 10 is up 23.8% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 17.4% from the peak, and down 0.2% (SA) in June. The Composite 20 is up 24.5% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 8.1% compared to June 2013.

The Composite 20 SA is up 8.1% compared to June 2013.

Prices increased (SA) in 7 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in June seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 20 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 42.7% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was lower than the consensus forecast for a 8.4% YoY increase and suggests a further slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.