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Thursday, July 17, 2014

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey highest since March 2011

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2014 10:11:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: July Manufacturing Survey

The diffusion index of current general activity increased from a reading of 17.8 in June to 23.9 this month. The index has remained positive for five consecutive months and is at its highest reading since March 2011. The current new orders [at 34.2] and shipments indexes increased notably this month, increasing 17 points and 19 points, respectively.
The current indicators for labor market conditions also suggest improved conditions this month. The employment index remained positive, and, although it increased less than 1 point [to 12.2], it has improved for four consecutive months.
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 15.5 for July.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through July. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through June.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys is at the highest level since 2004, and this suggests stronger expansion in the ISM report for July.