Monday, July 21, 2014

Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth decelerated slightly in June"

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2014 08:39:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth decelerated slightly in June

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to +0.12 in June from +0.16 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made nonpositive contributions to the index in June, but two of the four categories increased from May.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.13 in June from +0.28 in May, marking its fourth consecutive reading above zero. June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was somewhat above the historical trend in June (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.