by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2014 09:00:00 AM
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 9.3% year-over-year in May
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: Home Price Gains Continue to Moderate According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Data through May 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... show the Composite Indices increased at a slower pace. The 10-City Composite gained 9.4% year-over-year and the 20-City 9.3%, down significantly from the +10.9% and +10.8% returns reported last month. All cities with the exception of Charlotte and Tampa saw their annual rates decelerate.
In the month of May, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.1%. For the second consecutive month, all twenty cities posted increases. Charlotte posted its highest monthly increase of 1.4% in over a year. Tampa gained 1.8%, followed by San Francisco at +1.6% and Chicago at +1.5%. Phoenix and San Diego were the only cities to gain less than one percent with increases of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. ...
“Home prices rose at their slowest pace since February of last year,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites posted just over 9%, well below expectations. Month-to-month, all cities are posting gains before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment 14 of 20 were lower."
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheKgLxpWbvgFONbKvd_lKh81GjRbi0skbMPyxzR90ENwLlHkPYgry6aEcfkJ4g1jwc64L7f7nB8GZnkutssNj-kk-9aw1_j-a-AEdNgk_9der1ZAhWpezIfFsefRfJBUykqFcj/s320/CSMay2014.jpg)
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 18.1% from the peak, and down 0.3% in May (SA). The Composite 10 is up 24.0% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 17.2% from the peak, and down 0.3% (SA) in May. The Composite 20 is up 24.7% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizgCGRBnOhcIxeH4qGrPB4q73FWG5ZuFkFojLHH4TdmtzJGldPcxHKJwG4v912pc4hzok08Xdmmh9ac8Zb5oeg4SGfIWlxP6ITt1mqbbAyk-X1DYuanPMgYdx_cI4rKCP0xAKk/s320/CSYoYMay2014.jpg)
The Composite 10 SA is up 9.3% compared to May 2013.
The Composite 20 SA is up 9.3% compared to May 2013.
Prices increased (SA) in 6 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in May seasonally adjusted. (Prices increased in 20 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 43.2% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).
This was lower than the consensus forecast for a 9.9% YoY increase and suggests a slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.