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Thursday, June 26, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2014 08:39:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released Tuesday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Indices Will Continue to Show More Marked Slowdowns

he Case-Shiller data for April 2014 came out this morning (research brief here), and based on this information and the May 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released June 22), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (May 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 9.6 percent and 9.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, respectively. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from April to May will be 0.4 percent for both the 20-City Composite Index and the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 29.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show another strong year-over-year gain in May, but lower than in April (10.8% year-over-year).

Zillow May 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller
(year ago)
(last month)
Zillow ForecastYoY9.7%9.7%9.6%9.6%
Zillow Forecasts1 185.9186.8171.1172.0
Current Post Bubble Low 146.45149.86134.07137.14
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Feb-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 26.9%24.7%27.6%25.4%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts