Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Wednesday: Ugly 3rd Estimate of Q1 GDP, Durable Goods

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2014 08:33:00 PM

From Neil Irwin at The Upshot (NY Times): Rise in Home Prices Is Slowing, and That’s a Good Thing

Home price numbers tend to move in more steady, gradual waves than other economic data. They also come out with long delays; the April Case-Shiller numbers are actually based on transactions that closed from February through April — and those home sales generally went under contract a month or two before they closed.

So the latest home price readings are very much a look in the rearview mirror, and it’s a look that suggests a deceleration is underway. ... The healthiest thing for the housing market would be home price rises that thread the needle: high enough that homeowners are building equity and homebuilders have incentive to start new construction, but low enough that they don’t significantly outpace wage growth and result in unaffordable housing and a painful correction. The April home price numbers suggest we may be heading there.
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Q1 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.8% annualized in Q1, revised down from the second estimate of a 1.0% decrease.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in durable goods orders.