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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Wednesday: Fed Day

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2014 07:25:00 PM

On Sunday, I posted FOMC Preview: More Tapering. It is important to note that the updated projections were submitted prior to the CPI report this morning.

It will be interesting to see if the FOMC changes this sentence from the previous statement:

Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
The FOMC uses the PCE price index, and PCE prices show inflation still running below the FOMC's 2% objective. But they might mention some pickup in inflation.

Other inflation mentions in the previous statement included:
The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings.
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Statement. The FOMC is expected to reduce monthly QE3 asset purchases from $45 billion per month to $35 billion per month at this meeting.

• Also at 2:00 PM, the FOMC projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.