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Monday, June 09, 2014

Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2014 08:58:00 PM

From Fannie Mae: Spring-Summer Buying and Selling Season Sputters Despite Drop in Mortgage Rates

"Consumers’ lukewarm income expectations and reticence about the economy seem to be holding back housing demand," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "This year’s spring and summer home buying season has gotten off to a slow start, even as mortgage rates have trended lower over the past two months. Our National Housing Survey data show that economic conditions continue to be the top concern among consumers who think it’s a bad time to buy or sell a home. While recent housing activity suggests that the worst of the housing slump may be behind us, this caution among consumers supports our expectation that the rebound in home sales will likely be too modest to pull sales for all of 2014 ahead of last year."
As a reminder: a decline in existing home sales this year is not "bad news". With fewer distressed sales and less investor buying, it is no surprise that existing home sales are down. I expect housing starts and new home sales (the key for GDP and employment growth) to increase this year and also in 2015.

• At 7:30 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April from the BLS. In March, the number of job openings (yellow) were up 3.5% year-over-year compared to March 2013, and Quits were up sharply year-over-year.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in inventories.