Saturday, June 21, 2014

Schedule for Week of June 22nd

by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2014 01:11:00 PM

There are several key reports this week: New and Existing home sales for May, Case-Shiller house prices for April, the 3rd estimate of Q1 GDP, and the May Personal Income and Outlays.

For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released.

----- Monday, June 23rd -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 4.75 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in April were at a 4.65 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.81 million SAAR.

A key will be the reported year-over-year increase in inventory of homes for sale.

----- Tuesday, June 24th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through March 2014 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 11.4% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for April. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 11.8% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 1.2% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the April sales rate.

The consensus is for an in increase in sales to 441 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in May from 433 thousand in April.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for the index to increase to 83.7 from 83.0.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.  The consensus is for a reading of 7, unchanged from 7 in May.

----- Wednesday, June 25th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.8% annualized in Q1, revised down from the second estimate of a 1.0% decrease.

----- Thursday, June 26th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 313 thousand from 312 thousand.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

----- Friday, June 27th -----

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 82.0, up from the preliminary reading of 81.2, and up from the May reading of 81.9.