Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Q1 GDP Revised Down to -2.9% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2014 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014 according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2013, real GDP increased 2.6 percent....

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, real GDP was estimated to have decreased 1.0 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was smaller than previously estimated, and the decline in exports was larger than previously estimated ...

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from PCE. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 3.1% to 1.0%. Ouch!