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Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Fed's Beige Book: Non-residential construction activity picking up, Residential is Mixed

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2014 02:07:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and based on information collected on or before May 23, 2014."

All twelve Federal Reserve Districts report that economic activity expanded during the current reporting period. The pace of growth was characterized as moderate in the Boston, New York, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, and modest in the remaining regions. Compared with the previous report, the pace of growth picked up in the Cleveland and St. Louis Districts but slowed slightly in the Kansas City District.
And on real estate:
Residential real estate activity has been mixed since the last report, with a lack of inventory at times cited as a constraining factor. Boston, New York, and Kansas City indicated that existing home sales were being held back due to low or dwindling inventories. Sales rose modestly in the Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts, with inventories described as low in Richmond and Chicago and declining in Cleveland. Sales activity, however, softened in the Philadelphia, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts, though Philadelphia did note some signs of improvement in May. San Francisco attributed some of the weakness to severe weather. Home prices continued to increase across most of the Districts; Boston reported some pullback in prices of single-family homes, though condo prices in that District, as well as in New York, rose. New York, Chicago, and Dallas reported strengthening demand for apartment rentals, whereas Boston noted some slackening in demand.

Homebuilders gave mixed reports on new home sales and construction in recent weeks: Residential construction strengthened, to varying degrees in the New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. However, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Minneapolis indicated some weakening in new home sales and construction. Overall residential construction activity was mixed across the San Francisco District, though contacts there expect activity will increase over the next year. Both Boston and New York reported a good deal of recent multi-family development at the high end of the market, while Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas noted strength in multi-family construction more generally.

Non-residential construction activity was steady to stronger in most Districts over the latest reporting period, with strengthening reported in the Boston, St. Louis, and Kansas City Districts. Cleveland described pipeline activity as strong, and San Francisco noted that a number of public and commercial high rise projects have been announced or are underway. In contrast, Minneapolis reported a decline in non-residential construction activity, and Philadelphia characterized it as steady at a low level; Chicago described activity as mixed--with office construction weak but industrial and some segments of retail fairly strong. The commercial real estate market was mostly stronger since the last report. Leasing activity and vacancy rates improved in the Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, and were generally steady in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis Districts. Dallas described market conditions as robust.
emphasis added
Some more positive comments on commercial real estate.  Residential is mixed.