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Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow to 11.9% year-over-year increase in March

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2014 11:23:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released last week (CoreLogic this morning). Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

It looks like the year-over-year change for Case-Shiller will continue to slow. From Zillow: Finally…We’re Seeing More of the Slowdown

The Case-Shiller data for February 2014 came out [last week], and based on this information and the March 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released April 21), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (March 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 11.9 and 12.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, respectively. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from February to March will be 0.8 percent for the 20-City Composite Index and 0.7 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for March will not be released until Tuesday, May 27.
The Case-Shiller Comp 20 was up 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November, up 13.4% YoY in December, 13.2% in January, and up 12.9% YoY in February - and will probably be around 11.9% YoY in March - so the index appears to be slowing down.

Zillow March 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller
(year ago)
(last month)
Zillow ForecastYoY12.1%12.1%11.9%11.9%
Zillow Forecasts1 180.7185.5166.1170.7
Current Post Bubble Low 146.45149.81134.07137.10
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Feb-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 23.4%23.8%23.9%24.5%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts