by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2014 07:28:00 PM

From Professor Tim Duy: Dudley Revisits Exit Strategy

Today New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave what was both an interesting and depressing speech. Interesting in that he provides some new thoughts on the exit strategy. Depressing in that he outlines a case for persistently low interest rates. One wonders why, given such an outlook, the Fed is so firmly focused on the exit strategy to begin with, rather than accelerating the pace of the recovery.
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Bottom Line: Dudley reinforces expectations that the low rate environment will persist long into the future. The data flow is not providing reason to think otherwise at this point; we would need to see higher inflation numbers coupled with real reason to believe labor market slack was rapidly evaporating, probably in the form of stronger wage growth. It remains interesting that the Fed does not view their own outlook as reason to accelerate the pace of activity. They seem relatively content to accept what they themselves acknowledge is a ongoing disappointment.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 11:30 AM, Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks, Commencement Remarks, At the New York University Commencement, New York, New York

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of April 29-30, 2014.