by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2014 03:13:00 PM

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Tuesday, June 3rd.  Sales in April were close to 16.0 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in May will be above 16 million (SAAR). 

Here are a few forecasts:

From WardsAuto: May Sales to Continue Upward Trend

A new WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle deliveries to best April’s strong showing, with modest increases to incentives and a full post-holiday sales week on the calendar boosting the retail outlook. ... The projected 16.1 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate would be slightly higher than [in April].

From J.D. Power: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: May New-Vehicle Retail Sales Continue Growth Trend; Strong Memorial Day Weekend Expected

The strong retail performance is expected to lift total light-vehicle sales to 1.5 million units in May 2014 ... [16.1 million SAAR]

From TrueCar: May SAAR to Hit 16.1 Million Vehicles, According to TrueCar; 2014 New Vehicle Sales Expected to be up 5.5 Percent Year-Over-Year

Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 16.1 million new vehicle sales is up 6 percent from May 2013 and up 1.1 percent over April 2014.

The sales growth rate will probably slow this year and auto sales will contribute less to GDP growth in 2014 than the previous four years. Here is a table showing annual sales and the growth rate since 2000.

Light Vehicle Sales
	Sales (millions)	Annual Change
2000	17.4	2.7%
2001	17.1	-1.3%
2002	16.8	-1.8%
2003	16.6	-1.1%
2004	16.9	1.4%
2005	16.9	0.5%
2006	16.5	-2.6%
2007	16.1	-2.5%
2008	13.2	-18.0%
2009	10.4	-21.2%
2010	11.6	11.1%
2011	12.7	10.2%
2012	14.4	13.4%
2013	15.5	7.6%
20141	16.1	3%
1LMC Automotive Forecast