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Thursday, May 15, 2014

Friday: Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2014 08:39:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts in 2014:

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.
Of course, with the terms of the bet, we could both "win" at some point during the year. (I expect to "win" soon).

In April 2013, starts were at a 852 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win, starts would have to be up 20% or at 1.022 million SAAR in April (possible). For NDD to win, starts would have to fall to 752 thousand SAAR (not likely). NDD could also "win" if permits fall to 790 thousand SAAR from 905 thousand SAAR in April 2013 (possible).

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for April. Total housing starts were at 946 thousand (SAAR) in March. Single family starts were at 635 thousand SAAR in March. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 980 thousand (SAAR) in April.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for May). The consensus is for a reading of 84.5, up from 84.1 in April.

• At 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2014.