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Thursday, April 03, 2014

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2014 07:20:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle:

"We forecast a 200,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in March ... We expect that the unemployment rate declined to 6.6% ...

As growth accelerates later in 2014, we expect the trend rate of payrolls growth to rise to about 225,000 per month."
• At 8:30 AM ET the BLS will release the Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 206,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, up from the 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in  February.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 6.6% in March. 

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThis graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through February.

The economy has added 8.7 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (8.0 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 129 thousand fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007, and it is very likely that private employment now exceeds the pre-recession peak.