Tuesday, April 08, 2014

"A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends"

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2014 06:42:00 PM

This is an excellent overview of many of the labor force participation trends.

From Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry at Marcoblog: A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends

And the promise of another post using micro data:

[A]n important assumption in the BLS projection is that the post-2007 decline in prime-age participation will not persist. Indeed, the data for the first quarter of 2014 does suggest that some stabilization has occurred.

But separating what is trend from what is cyclical is challenging. The rapid pace of the decline in participation among the prime-age population between 2007 and 2013 is somewhat puzzling. Could this decline reflect a temporary cyclical effect or something more permanent? A follow-up blog will explore this question in more detail using the micro data from the Current Population Survey.