In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 12.8% year-over-year increase in February

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2014 07:12:00 PM

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in durable goods orders.

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released today. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

It looks like the year-over-year change for Case-Shiller will continue to slow. From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast Showing Moderate Slowdown in February

The Case-Shiller data for January 2014 came out this morning, and based on this information and the February 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released March 19) we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (February 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 12.8 and 13.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, respectively. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be 0.6 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). ... Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will not be released until Tuesday, April 29.
The following table shows the Zillow forecast for the February Case-Shiller index.

Zillow February Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Feb 2013159.09162.52146.51149.81
(last month)
Jan 2013180.08182.6165.50168.03
Zillow ForecastYoY13.1%13.1%12.8%12.8%
Zillow Forecasts1 179.9183.7165.3169.0
Current Post Bubble Low 146.45149.69134.07136.92
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 22.8%22.7%23.3%23.3%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts