by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2014 08:04:00 PM

From Tim Duy Fed Watch: A Lackluster Start to the New Year

Incoming data has tended to disappoint. While weather impacts are taking part of the blame, I tend to think that part of the blame should fall on overly optimistic interpretations of data patterns at the end of 2013. ...

Bottom Line: Data disappointment in part is driven by excessive optimism. In any event, data are not sufficiently disappointing to derail the Fed's tapering plans. Unless activity lurches sharply downward, I think the tapering process is pretty much on autopilot. It is now all about interest rates.

CR Note: I think Duy is correct that tapering will continue "unless activity lurches sharply downward", but I remain fairly optimistic about 2014. We will see ...

Thursday:
• Early, Trulia Price Rent Monitors for February. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 338 thousand from 348 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in January orders.

• At 12:00 PM, the Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.