Sunday, March 23, 2014

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2014 08:33:00 PM

Jon Hilesenrath at the WSJ points out that even if the Fed starts raising rates a little earlier than expected, rates are expected to be below normal for a long time: Inside Fed Statement Lurks Hint on Rates

The Fed, in its official policy statement, said it planned to keep short-term rates below what it sees as appropriate for a normal economy even after the unemployment rate and inflation revert to typical levels.

In 2016, for example, the Fed projects the jobless rate will reach 5.4%, economic output will be growing at a rate near 3% and inflation will be just below 2%. That level of unemployment would be lower than the average over the past 50 years.

Yet officials see the Fed's target short-term interest rate at just over 2% at the end of 2016, well below the 4% they consider appropriate for an economy running on all cylinders.
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data.

• Early, Black Knight (formerly LPS) will release their monthly "First Look" at February mortgage performance data.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of March 23rd

The Favorable Demographics for Apartments

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices are mixed with WTI futures at $99.21 per barrel and Brent at $106.92 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.51 per gallon (up sharply over the last month, but still down from the same week a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.



Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com