Wednesday, March 05, 2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreases to 51.6 in February

by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2014 10:05:00 AM

The February ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 51.6%, down from 54.0% in January. The employment index decreased sharply in February to 47.5%, down from 56.4% in January. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2014 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 49th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 51.6 percent in February, 2.4 percentage points lower than January's reading of 54 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 54.6 percent, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the reading of 56.3 percent reported in January, reflecting growth for the 55th consecutive month and at a slower rate. The New Orders Index registered 51.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the reading of 50.9 percent registered in January. The Employment Index decreased 8.9 percentage points to 47.5 percent from the January reading of 56.4 percent and indicates contraction in employment for the first time after 25 consecutive months of growth. The Prices Index decreased 3.4 percentage points from the January reading of 57.1 percent to 53.7 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in February when compared to January. According to the NMI®, ten non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. The majority of respondents' comments indicate a slowing in the rate of growth month over month of business activity. Some of the respondents attribute this to weather conditions. Overall respondents' comments reflect cautiousness regarding business conditions and the economy."
emphasis added
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.6% and indicates slower expansion in February than in January.