by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2014 10:27:00 AM
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in February to 2.29% from 2.34% in January. Freddie's rate is down from 3.15% in February 2013, and this is the lowest level since February 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for February on Monday, March 31st.
Click on graph for larger image
Although this indicates progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.86 percentage points over the last year - and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until late 2015.
Note: Very few seriously delinquent loans cure with the owner making up back payments - most of the reduction in the serious delinquency rate is from foreclosures, short sales, and modifications.
So even though distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of distressed sales for another 2 years (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).