by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2014 02:27:00 PM

From the Philly Fed: March Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity rebounded in March, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased and recorded positive readings this month, suggesting a return to growth following weather‐related weakness in February. Firms’ employment levels were reported near steady, but responses reflected optimism about adding to payrolls over the next six months. The surveyʹs indicators of future activity reflected optimism about continued growth over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ‐6.3 in February to 9.0 this month, nearing its reading in January.

The employment index remained positive for the ninth consecutive month but edged 3 points lower, suggesting near‐steady employment.
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 4.0 for March.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through March. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through February.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys was negative in February (probably weather related), and turned positive again in March.  This suggests stronger expansion in the ISM report for March.