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Tuesday, March 11, 2014

CBO: Federal Deficit through February $148 billion less this year than it was in fiscal year 2013 (adjusted for timing)

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2014 02:30:00 PM

From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Monthly Budget Review for February 2014

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $379 billion for the first five months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates, $115 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year. Revenues are higher and outlays are lower than they were at this time a year ago. Without shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the five-month period would have been $148 billion less this year than it was in fiscal year 2013.
And for February 2014:
The federal government incurred a deficit of $195 billion in February 2014, CBO estimates—$9 billion less than the $204 billion deficit incurred in February 2013. Because March 1 and February 1 both fell on a weekend in 2014, certain payments that ordinarily would have been made in March this year were made in February, and certain payments that would have been made in February were made in January. Without those shifts in the timing of payments, the deficit in February 2014 would have been $1 billion larger than it was.

CBO estimates that receipts in February totaled $144 billion—$21 billion (or 17 percent) more than those in the same month last year ... Total spending in February 2014 was $338 billion, CBO estimates, $12 billion more than outlays in the same month in 2013.
emphasis added
The consensus was the deficit for February would be around $218 billion, and it appears the deficit for fiscal 2014 will be smaller than the CBO currently expects (less than 3.0% of GDP).