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Friday, February 07, 2014

Reasons for a 2014 Pickup in Economic Growth Intact

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2014 04:42:00 PM

I am expecting economic growth to increase in 2014 for a number of reasons:

1) I expect the housing recovery to continue.

2) Household balance sheets are in much better shape. This means less deleveraging, and probably a little more borrowing.

3) State and local government austerity is over (in the aggregate).

4) There will be less Federal austerity in 2014.

5) Commercial real estate (CRE) investment will probably make a small positive contribution in 2014.

I'll write more about this ... and of course I will change my mind if the data doesn't improve - but all of these reasons are intact, and I expect to see better economic data soon.