Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.4% year-over-year in December

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2014 09:15:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the quarterly national index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: ome Prices Lose Momentum According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that National home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%. This represents a slight improvement over last quarter’s annual rate of 11.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the National Index declined 0.3%.

In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates. Chicago showed its highest year-over-year return since December 1988. Dallas set a new peak and posted its largest annual gain since its inception in 2000. Denver declined 0.1% and is now 0.7% below its all-time index level high set in September 2013.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over. Year-over-year values for the two monthly Composites weakened and the quarterly National Index barely improved. The seasonally adjusted data also exhibit some softness and loss of momentum.

After 26 months of consecutive gains, Phoenix posted -0.3% for the month of December, its largest decline since March 2011. Phoenix once led the recovery from the bottom in 2012, but Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco were the top three performing cities of 2013 with gains of over 20%. The Sun Belt, with the exception of Dallas, Miami and Tampa, saw lower annual rates in December when compared to their November numbers. The six cities with the highest year-over-year figures saw their rates decline (Las Vegas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit) and most cities ranked at the bottom improved (Denver, Washington and New York) – Charlotte and Cleveland were the two exceptions."
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 20.1% from the peak, and up 0.8% in December (SA). The Composite 10 is up 21.0% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 19.3% from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in December. The Composite 20 is up 21.7% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 13.6% compared to December 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 13.4% compared to December 2012.

Prices increased (SA) in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in December seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 6 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 45.5% from the peak, and prices in Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was at the consensus forecast for a 13.3% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.