In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Decent Sales Expected for January

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2014 04:09:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report January vehicle sales on Monday, February 3rd.

Here are a few forecasts:

From Winter Weather Freezes January Auto Sales ... Says forecasts that 1,036,533 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million. ...

January's weather complications mean that sales will likely be made up in February.
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Improve Nearly 2 Percent From Last Year; Kelley Blue Book Projects Best January Since 2007
New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 1.6 percent year-over-year in January to a total of 1.06 million units, and an estimated 15.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book. ... At 15.9 million, this would be the highest recorded January SAAR since 2007, when it was 16.4 million. ...

"January is typically the weakest sales month of the year as many consumers take advantage of holiday deals in December. However, winter storms also could impact new-vehicle sales this month, as much of the country deals with historically cold weather and snowstorms," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Early estimates indicate fleet sales will be down as well."
From J.D. Power: Strong January New-Vehicle Sales Produce Sunny Forecast for Auto Industry
New-vehicle sales for January 2014 are expected to rise 3%, according to a sales forecast jointly issued by the Power Information Network (PIN) from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. According to the forecast, consumers are expected to purchase 847,000 new vehicles in January 2014, meaning that dealerships would move more metal than in any January since 2004.
It appears sales in January were OK even with the cold weather (January is usually the weakest month of the year, so there is a large seasonal adjustment).