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Saturday, January 25, 2014

Schedule for Week of January 26th

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2014 11:27:00 AM

The key reports this week are the advance report for Q4 GDP on Thursday, December New Home sales on Monday, and November Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the January Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released.

Also there will be an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday (Chairman Bernanke's final FOMC meeting), and the FOMC is expected to continue to "taper" QE3 asset purchases.

----- Monday, January 27th -----

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 450 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 464 thousand in November. 

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is a reading of 5.0, up from 3.1 in December (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, January 28th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods orders.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through July 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 13.7% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for August. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 13.7% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.6% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

9:00 AM: Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) for January from the American Chemistry Council. This appears to be a leading economic indicator.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for the index to increase to 79.0 from 78.1.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for January. The consensus is a reading of 10, down from 13 in December (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2013.

----- Wednesday, January 29th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement.  No change in interest rates is expected (for a long time).  However the FOMC is expected to reduce QE3 asset purchases by $10 billion per month at this meeting.

----- Thursday, January 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 327 thousand from 326 thousand.

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (advance estimate). This is the advance estimate of Q4 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q4.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in the index.

----- Friday, January 31st -----

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for an increase to 59.5, up from 59.1 in December.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 81.0, up from the preliminary reading of 80.4, and down from the December reading of 82.5.

10:00 AM: Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).